CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-02-21T18:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-02-21T18:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29338/-1
CME Note: Wide partial halo CME to the west, associated with a beautiful filament eruption seen after 2024-02-21T17:30Z in AIA 304 traversing the western part of the disk and later as prominence off the western limb in SUVI 304. There is also an area of deep dimming and post eruptive arcades centered at (~N05W40) and stretching along 40th longitude (from lat -3 to 20) in AIA 193 associated with this eruption.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-24T16:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-25T12:19Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 65.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
#--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40222 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Feb 2024, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Feb 2024 10CM FLUX: 174 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Feb 2024 10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Feb 2024 10CM FLUX: 178 / AP: 008 Coronal mass ejections: ...A second westward partial halo CME was detected in the LASCO/C2 data at 18:36 UTC on February 21th. The CME is associated with a filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 & 193 at 17:37 on February 21th in the north-west quadrant of visible solar disk. The CME has an estimated plane-of-sky speed of around 450 km/s although the bulk of the ejection will miss Earth, a glancing blow arrival is possible on February 25th...Lead Time: 31.77 hour(s)
Difference: -20.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-02-23T08:30Z
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